Road Transport facts

1976

342 million

1996

670 million

2016

1.320 million

2036

2.800 million

total
vehicles in
the
world
is doubling
every
20 years

World Vehicle production

2010 77,6 25,60%
2011
79,9
3,20%
2012
84,2
5,50%
2013
87,6
4,00%
2014
89,8
2,50%
2015
90,8
1,10%
2016
95
4,50%
2017
97
2,36%
2018
95,6
-1,10%
2019
91,8
-5,20%
2020
77,6
-16,00%
2021
80,38%
3,50%

87 million / year

is the average of

new vehicles

produced per year

in last 12 years

of which +60%
end up in cities

and… being realistic

the road transport energy cost for end users will not decrease on next decades

Last decade
EU failed
all
road sustainable goals

Accidents
over the past 6 years, EU failed to drop from 23.000 deaths / year 
USA 2020 – a 23,4 % increase in road fatalities despite a 13% decrease in total km.vehicle due to Covid 19 Pandemic

Congestion
the goals were to reduce the number of cars in cities by 50%. Instead, there was a huge increase

Environment
Road Transport CO2 emissions increased 16% (1)

and highly risks to again fail all them in the next decades

An overview over current road mobility solutions impacts’ areas and weights

none of this is going to be easy

commissioner
Frans Timmermans

all vehicles will be non-ICE

01  Battery Electric Vehicles

charging logistic – first 30% will be “easy” (home + work). and the 70% that parks on streets (day and night)…?

BEV price will be too high for decades

EV will be, at best, 150 million in 2030; that is… 8% of total world cars

energy charging cost: until last year there was a dreamlike price; we now see the real cost; and, in Portugal, BEV sales dropped 40%

automobile industry – a huge reality: 7% of the EU’s GDP and 14.6 million Europeans jobs. Non-ICE way threatens EU’s 3 million jobs

unavoidable, but in a longer term

battery – why should buy a car which more expensive piece will double the capacity and lower the price in the next 5 years…?

BEV production emissions still 80% higher than ICE

Interests: energy industry + public accounts (55% of fuel price are taxes) + economy balance… still long-term equations to be solved

incentives to non-ICE end in 2030

Toyota – only now (Dec 2021) the biggest world car manufacturer bet on BEV (for top segments), but equally investing in hydrogen. People wonder why… and wait

02   AUTONOMOUS

too far away – “the timeline has extended from years to decades…”

03  micro (e)MOBILITY

a promising solution, but… (i) people’s accommodation, (ii) 4 | 2 wheels sharing the same way, and (iii) 2 wheels | pedestrians

04   Connected

the 1-million-dollar question: why the best connected services are still not resonating with consumers..?

05  SHARED TRANSPORT

the thinking for 9 in 10 is: “they should all be sharing their cars; it is good for society

But I will still have my own car

06

The European  CO2 CHALLENGE

For CARS and VANS

EU CO2 Regulation
14th July 2021

(part-1)

applying EU 2021 CO2 Regulations will not be enough to reach EU road sustainable goals for 2050 as 30% of the European fleet still will be ICE

7

all the ongoing solutions require fast, and mass adoption

and that,
is not happening

the question is that failing road goals leads to the astronomical true costs of Road Transport

ROAD TRANSPORT  EXTERNAL COSTS (*) (2018)

 (*) “costs generated by transport users and not paid by them but by the society as a whole”

€ 1.095.000 million / year

€ 3.240 / vehicle / year

  +

ROAD TRANSPORT INTERNAL COSTS

costs  paid by the vehicle owner and/or user

A segment B vehicle running 10.000 km / year costs, in depreciation, energy, insurance, maintenance, accidents, tolls, fines, parking… around 3.800 € / year

€ 1.285.000 million / year

€ 3.800 / vehicle / year

all correlated with each other

+ Climate Changes

+

INFRASTRUCTURE COSTS

€ 269.000 million / year

Transport is the only sector that in the last decades has seen the total GHG emissions increase…!

Road Transport represents 75% of all transport emissions

Climate and digital
Transitions

CO2 emissions recorded by manufacturers for registration purposes do not correspond to the real-world CO2 emissions

and that may undermine the EU CO2 emission targets

analyse the evolution of real-world data as compared to registration data and detect deviations

EU CO2 Regulation

14th July 2021

(part II)

European Commission does not trust car manufacturers’ data concerning CO2 emissions

Governments needs fraud-proof data about the GAP between the type-approved CO2 emissions and the real-world consumption of fuel, energy and CO2 emissions

EU is hard investing in people’s awareness of real-world CO2 emissions and Climate urgency